Every NBA champion hasan X-factor that helps get them over the edge. We dive into whocould be those players for title contenders in the 2025-26season.
Everyone always says that the NBA is a star-driven league.
And while that is true, basketball is still a team sport, andeven the mightiest of stars need great teammates to help reach thefinish line.
Take, for instance, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Of course, they wouldn’t even be close to contending for an NBAtitle if not for the contributions of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. But even the reigning MVP and hissecond-in-command would tell you that they couldn’t conquer thefinal frontier if not for the efforts of Alex Caruso – one of the best role players of his generation.
Who might be those players in 2025-26? We’ve found six non-starplayers whose performance could have a major impact on the story ofthe season.
We’re going to limit our X-factors to players who have not madean All-Star team in the last three seasons. We also won’t beincluding any members of the Thunder, since we already mentionedCaruso and already know which dominoes need to fall in their favorto repeat as champions (somethingour model expects them to do).
Lastly, we will be focusing on teams with realistic odds ofmaking a deep playoff run, as those are the teams whose potentialx-factors mean the most.
2025-26 NBA X-Factors
Jaden McDaniels, MinnesotaTimberwolves
McDaniels is the X-factorof all X-factors. Ever since the Timberwolves made McDaniels afull-time starter in 2022, he has always looked the part of a3-and-D ace. However, his flashes as an off-the-dribble scorer(78th percentile midrange efficiency in 2023-24) have led some tosuspect that there is more to McDaniels than just being thisgeneration’s version of Shane Battier.
In today’s NBA, it isn’t enough to bank on continuity. And notonly did the Timberwolves not add any marquee names in free agency,they lost one in Nickeil Alexander-Walker. So to avoid underperforming, the Timberwolves will need thataddition to come in the form of a leap from their young core.
Terrence Shannon Jr., Rob Dillingham and Jaylen Clark are allpotential candidates, but McDaniels has the highest ceiling of allof them, and if he does take his game from high-level starter toAll-Star, Minnesota may finally be able to advance past theconference finals.
Reed Sheppard, HoustonRockets
The Rockets had a big offseason, but their offense still doesn’tmove me the way it should for a team that wants to compete for anNBA title.
Even with Kevin Durant, the Rockets don’t have enough on-ballcreation to survive in the half court in a playoff series. Theywere 27th in the league last year in effective field-goal shootingon pull-ups (per NBA.com).
That brings us to Sheppard. The Kentucky product was taken thirdoverall in the 2024 NBA Draft in part because of his ability tocreate for himself and others. In his single season at Kentucky,Sheppard was in the 93rd percentile in off-the-dribble jumperefficiency.
Last season, though, Sheppard’s ineffectiveness (28th percentileDRIP)made it hard for him to see the floor (654 total minutes) on a teamthat was focused on winning as many games as possible. The Rocketshave to hope that Sheppard will be able to take a major leap inYear 2 if they plan on fielding a more balanced offense.
Cameron Johnson, DenverNuggets
The Nuggets gave the Thunder everything they could handle in theplayoffs. But in the end, it was their lack of depth (27th inpoints per game off the bench in the regular season) that did themin. Outside of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon andChristian Braun, Denver didn’t have anyone it could trust when itreally mattered.
Michael Porter Jr. usually belongs in that group, but hestruggled with injuries and inconsistency in the playoffs. Heaveraged 9.1 points in the postseason after putting up 18.2 pergame during the regular season.
In theory, Johnson is a very similar player. He’s tall, canshoot, and leans more toward offense than defense.
He isn’t really bringing anything new to the table(other than more financial flexibility), but the good news is theNuggets don’t need him to reinvent the wheel. They just needJohnson to be the player Porter was for them before thispostseason.
Mikal Bridges, New YorkKnicks
It could’ve been either Bridges or Mitchell Robinson here, butBridges is the guy because of Robinson’s injury concerns and theKnicks being far less committed to him financially (Bridgesinked a newextension last month).
Yes, Robinson was great last postseason, and New York trappedlightning in a bottle when they played double-big lineups featuringhim and Karl-Anthony Towns. But he’s only appeared in 48regular-season games over the last two years, and his free-throwshooting woes (career 52.2% free-throw shooter) make him easy tophase out of playoff games.Bridges, on the other hand, hasbeen an iron man.
Besides, when this roster was constructed, it was always withthe thought that Bridges would be one of the best role players inthe sport. How do you build a championship-caliber team with yourtwo best players (Jalen Brunson and Towns) being questionabledefenders? You surround them with a trio of versatilewings/forwards (Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby).
So far, Hart and Anunoby have lived up to expectations. Bridges,however, hasn’t been the defender (outside the top 120 in defensiveDRIP) nor spacer (35.4% from 3 last season) we fell in love withduring his time with the Phoenix Suns. Can he return to the rootsthat made him such a highly coveted player in the first place?
The Knicks are going to need him to do so if they plan onhanging up a banner during the Brunson-Towns era.
Lonzo Ball, ClevelandCavaliers
Ever since they traded for Donovan Mitchell and formed a Big 4with him, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, theCavaliers have had an hourglass problem. Allen and Mobley have similar strengths andweaknesses, and ditto with Mitchell and Garland.
The Cavaliers have since remedied the fit issues that persistedbetween these four stars, but that doesn’t change the fact thatthey are lacking in wings/forwards who can adequately safeguard theperimeter.
For years, Isaac Okoro was their best and brightest in thiscategory, but his offense was always too detrimental (minus-0.7offensive DRIP) for them to profit from his point-of-attackexcellence. Max Strus offers a lot more as a shooter/spacer, buthe’s overtaxed as a primary stopper (outside the top 180 inD-DRIP). And last season’s midseason acquisition, De’Andre Hunter,is better equipped to guard bigger forwards than speedyguards.
That makes Ball, the headliner of their incoming class, theperfect addition. Ball is a great perimeter defender (93rdpercentile in D-DRIP), and between his pace-pushing, passing, andimproved jumper, he does enough on offense to warrant keeping himon the floor (-0.1 O-DRIP).
On paper, Ball is the perfect fit. There’s only one downside:Ball has played in just 35 regular-season games over the last threeyears.
Will the former second-overall pick’s body hold up this year?Cleveland doesn’t need him in the regular season, but can the teammanage his load enough to keep him healthy for an entire postseasonrun? The fate of the season may very well rest on the answer tothat question.
Brandin Podziemski, GoldenState Warriors
If the second round of the 2025 Western Conference semifinalstaught us anything, it’s that the Warriors are relying too much onStephen Curry.
Now, Curry is tied for second in O-DRIP in the entire NBA. Thereare worse people to ask to shoulder an enormous burden. But Curryis 37 years old now, and he can’t carry the Warriors the way heused to during his glory days.
The future Hall of Famer needs some help, and as we also learnedin that aforementioned series, his aging co-stars (Jimmy Butler andDraymond Green) can’t do it on their lonesome, either.
The Warriors need someone who can flank their stars while alsoleveling up their scoring when one or two of them need rest. Withthe Jonathan Kuminga situation in dire straits, it appears that theonly person capable of such a feat on this roster isPodziemski.
The start of his sophomore campaign was a rocky one, butPodziemski bounced back in a pretty meaningful way in January. Inhis final 33 games of the regular season, Podziemski averaged 15.1points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.2 steals on 46.6% shootingfrom the floor and 41.0% shooting from downtown (on 6.1 attemptsper game).
If Podziemski can build on this second-half success, it wouldgive the Warriors a viable third option behind Curry and Butler,and an even greater chance of winning one moretitle.
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